Tuesday, August 17, 2010

India to become world's fastest growing economy by 2013-15: Morgan Stanley

India is poised to accelerate its growth rate to 9-9.5% over 2013-15, even as China will cool down to a more sedate 9% by 2012 and to 8% by 2015. So finds a new report by Morgan Stanley, authored by Chetan Ahya (managing director for Asia and India economist, who writes a monthly column for ET) and Tanvee Gupta.


* Chokes and then Chuckles

Interesting. Have heard similar India Shining reports earlier as well. Most of them usually die a natural death, but sometimes the reports don’t even add up when compared against data from other sources.

Rewind to June 2009, and there was another ‘interesting’ article

India Projected to Be the Fastest Growing Economy in 2010

In June 2009, an article projected India to be the FASTEST growing economy in 2010.

As per the above article, India would be growing by 8% in 2010, overtaking China which was projected to grow at 7.7%. This is supposed to happen in 2010, that is THIS year.

A bit of googling and I come across something else.

New Picture



Data Source : International Monetary Fund.

I am sure that the data on Economy Watch would be more reliable than something put up on Seeking Alpha, don’t you think so?

The data in the above table is based on numbers crunched in in MAY 2010. Forget about being the FASTEST growing economy, the indicators till May 2010 still showed India trailing behind China.

Yes, they are indicators based on a lot of assumptions, but then - if you are going to hype up one report based on such assumptions, it’s only fair to suggest that one should also publish the previous reports alongside the brilliant predictions (made at that time) with their respective indicators and assumptions which blew up in your face. Just to give the reader of the article a clearer picture of things.

Now we have another report suggesting India will be the fastest growing in 2013-15. Sigh……

How do you expect anyone with even half a working brain to take these ‘reports’ seriously?!

Dikhaawon pe mat jaao. Apni akal ladaao.

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